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Even up to 8.8% of the population can be infected with COVID-19. The number of tests needed to detect a positive case is a key indicator for assessing the situation in a given country

Is it possible for even up to 8.8% of people in the world to be infected? Such a strong thesis can be obtained by analyzing available data on the development of the disease in the world. What part of the population may be infected? Iceland in which there are just over 341 thousand people have already completed (as of April 16, 2020) 38,204 tests for COVID-19. This means that this small country has already examined…

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Re-estimated forecast for US shows that restrictions were introduced to late

From all forecasts made by ExMetrix team US model is most dynamic. Its re-estimation shows that restrictions in US were introduced to late. Current re-estimated model show up to 900k of infections. We will observe situation as it is changing dynamically.

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Re-estimated forecast – up to 250,000 infections and slow down around April 10th. Forecast of coronavirus epidemic in the US – ExMetrix model

The model developed by the ExMetrix, company that deals with economic and social forecasting, shows that the number of people infected in the US can grow up to 250,000 cases and should be reached around April 15, 2020. Previous version of model was prepared when number of infections reached 43k and suggested up to 160k of infections. Model had to be re-estimated mainly because mobility of citizens assumed more enforced social distancing, which did not…

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160,000 infections and slowdown around April 10th. COVID-19 ExMetrix forecasting model for the US

The number of people infected in the US can grow up to 160,000 cases and should be reached around April 15, 2020. The slowdown should start at around April 3rd, and clear inhibition of the cases around April 10th. The fastest growth of confirmed infected people can be as high as 10,000 cases per day and will occur in the period from today to 03/04/2020. After April 3rd, the number of cases should increase at…

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