Blog

In Malawi tonne of pepper costs 700 USD, and in Vietnam, the price is ten times higher. Whereas in Poland the price amounts to 22 000 PLN on the basis of a USD/PLN exchange rate at 3,5.

The Ancient Romans appreciated advantages of pepper. Rumour has it that bread with peppered honey was a favourite snack of Emperor Nero of Rome. Alexander the Great brought pepper from Persia and India. In medieval England, pepper served as payment for rent, ransom, and fine. It was also a part of a dowry. Therefore it symbolised well-being. The world has changed, and pepper has entered our homes for good. In Malawi pepper is the cheapest…

[See more...]


Non-ferrous metals market booming by the end of 2017.

ExMetrix forecast models prove the exceptional correspondence of medium term models. All of them suggest an increase of primary non-ferrous metals. Additionally, the forecast is reinforced by further weakening USD against EURO. The overview of historical and current ExMetrix forecast models. The first 6-month model of copper was made in October 2016 on data to 30.09.2016. The model was built at 210.50USD/lb (4694,5 USD/t – LME). The model forecast strong growth of the rate. The…

[See more...]


Soaring prices of butter in Poland. This problem also comes up in other countries.

Butter has become a burning issue in foodstuff. It’s turned out that its prices are not all-time high in Poland alone. The graph below depicts that Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices of butter has been increasing in Poland since September 2016. Since then, until the end of May 2017, it has grown up by 20 percentage points. Rising butter prices seem to be not related to the volume of its production. In fact, the chart…

[See more...]


Cryptocurrencies revolutionise the global financial system. ExMetrix forecasts digital currency rates.

A cryptocurrency – what is it? Cryptocurrencies are the virtual and real mediums of exchange which work by cryptography. They constitute a distributed accounting system which stores the information about possessing arbitrary units. Cryptocurrencies are available for every Internet user. Bitcoin is created digitally, by a community of people that anyone can join. Computers of Internet users represent P2P network of nodes. Money is appropriately encrypted, hence the first part of the name – “crypto-”.…

[See more...]


Non-smoking is still in fashion in Poland

In Poland as well as in Europe a significant decrease of non-smokers has been registered. Smokers struggle with severe health problems such as ageing of the skin, cardiovascular disease, arteriosclerosis, respiratory distress and diabetes. Smokers are at particular risk of cancer and demise at the worst. Cigarettes contain addictive nicotine. Cigarette smoke is also dangerous for passive smokers. What has contributed to the reduction in the number of smokers? For sure, it is health awareness,…

[See more...]


Only 1% of Polish GDP is intended for R&D. It is 2 times lower than the EU average.

The volume of investment in medium- and long-term nonpublic business activities is one of the indicators of economic development. These undertakings often involve a significant degree of risk. The table below published by Eurostat depicts the data concerning Venture Capital Investment (code VENTURE) which is expressed as GDP (Gross Domestic Product at market prices). Venture Capital Investment (VCI) is the subset of private equity which is intended for investments in listed companies and firms which…

[See more...]


The analysis of business and market cycles on the ExMetrix platform

ExMetrix has added to the analytical offer new and unique functions that make possible finding links within business cycles that occur throughout capital markets and market processes. Markets and market processes often work within business cycles. These cycles are characterised by different duration and performance. Throughout certain markets, we can observe really powerful cyclical phenomena. However, over other markets, these phenomena are less detectable. Duration of cycles ranges from a few days to several months…

[See more...]


EUROUSD – SIX-MONTH EXMETRIX MODELS INDICATE GROWTH

More and more signals of fundamental importance indicate the possibility of strengthening the euro in the medium term. For the time being, the course is not yet confirmed, but recent forecasts by ExMetrix prove its growth. Expiring events such as the French election and better US data as interest rates rise there may lead to an increase in demand for the European currency, and this will be reflected in the live currency pair charts. This…

[See more...]


Non-ferrous metals market booming with anticipated correction in the second quarter of 2017.

Latest news on the non-ferrous metals market. ZINC Mine production of zinc fell by 1.8 percent in 2016 compared to 2015 mainly due to the reduction of production in Australia, India, Ireland and Peru which was not affected by the increase in Bolivia, China and the Russian Federation. There is growing concern over current suppliers of zinc who may have an increasing problem of maintaining supply. It has been estimated that in 2017 may disappear over…

[See more...]


The economic downturn in the second quarter of 2017

The inflation model built on the basis of price indices for WIG20 index and the model based on American companies’ advertising expenditures point in the same direction which means the economic downturn in the second quarter of 2017.   The inflation model for WIG20 index Since mid-2013 until November 2016 we had to deal with inflation oscillating near 0 in Poland. At the same time, treasury bond yields remained low. However, from March 2015 inflation…

[See more...]


The copper boom to be continued…

The models developed by ExMetrix predict further growth in prices of copper. The platform generated two predictive models. The first one concerns the prices of copper and the second one refers to changes in a value of copper. The conclusions out of both models are coherent – the copper market foresees a boom that may last at least several next months. The evaluation of raw materials prices for a year or a few months forward…

[See more...]


S&P 500 index – Trump’s effect affects new peaks

S&P 500 index does not allow to forget about it. Trump’s dip is behind us but the referendum in Italy and a probable increase in interest rates of FED are still yet to come. These are in the nearest time. In April 2017 France is going to choose a new president. These events might surprise markets and they might have an impact on the most significant American index. As for now the model generated by…

[See more...]


Tenfold growth of renewable energy production in Poland since 2000

With nominal GDP of 548 billion dollars, Poland produces 302 million tons of CO2 (2014). France emits 333 tons of CO2 with nominal GDP of 2834 billion dollars (over five times higher than Polish GDP). Why do we emit over 90% of this what France does? There is no doubt that the structure of energy sources bears responsibility for this. In Poland coal is the main source of electric energy and in France it is…

[See more...]


Do the leading indicators anticipate the economy?

The leading indicators are measurable economic factors that change before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or trend. However, the rate of shares can constitute the leading indicator itself. It doesn’t mean that the leading indicators are useless for the investors. They use them to confirm sustainability of trends in the economy. If an increase in prices of shares is accompanied by a growth of leading indicators, it probably means that the economy…

[See more...]


Global deforestation continues. But not in China.

Forestation of China is an ambitious project which is an answer to rapacious forest management and a decrease in the forest area of the South America and Africa, the World Bank reports. The total forest area is 40 024 415 km². The average woodland (applied to land area) amounts to 31%, and per capita, it is 0, 60 ha of forest, i.e. around 2,5 times more than in Poland. Since 1990 the forest area decreased…

[See more...]


Poor universities contribute to graduate unemployment.

In recent years we have been observing a phenomenon of unemployed graduates that have more and more problems in the labour market. It is a conclusion which is a result of analysis of unemployed structure in Poland. The phenomena of incompatibility between courses and economic needs are mainly related to women than men. Is there any chance of reversing this adverse trend? In subsequent years there were first noticeable symptoms of improvement – especially in…

[See more...]


Variables that predate DAX index a week

We introduce four variables (listing of companies and funds) that often predate behaviour of DAX index by a week. The research covers periods of over the previous 10, 5 and 2 years including the last year. For more information check out our platform.

[See more...]


Students in Poland and prices of alcohol

The ExMetrix platform contains over 2,5 million variables that make it possible for the user to find interesting correlations just in a few seconds. It is easy enough to do it on one’s own. How does it work?

[See more...]


Decreasing number of academic students in Poland

The demographic decline is slowly hitting these days as a number of academic students in Poland has decreased since 2009. This was quickly followed by a falling number of higher education institutions that mainly concerns private schools which are not attractive for students anymore. As a result, the situation of Polish higher education doesn’t look promising. In spite of that, students are still perceived as a carefree and humorous community. However, the so called “endless…

[See more...]


Compelling Relations – 6 – GOLD

Jewellery constitutes nearly half of gold mined so far. To be more specific, it is 86 thousands of tons. Moreover, official reserves, private investments and industrial production are also available. The level of supply for gold depends on many factors but a situation on financial markets has a major influence on this resource. The demand for gold rises when risk soars and market situation is perceived as beginning of crisis. Gold, just like bonds, is…

[See more...]


Compelling Relations – 5 – RUSSIA IN TROUBLE

It is a common knowledge that Russia mainly bases on resources. The world has already seen that Russia usually takes advantage of its natural resources for the purposes of political issues as well. However, this affluence sometimes leads to lowering the guard what becomes a problem. In other areas Russia develops taking shortcuts. After, contrary to all expectations, the demand for energy resources decreased due to American shale gas, Russia got into trouble as well…

[See more...]


Canada strongly related to crude.

Crude, just as natural gas, is a resource that is used in many fields and branches of industry. Not only is it mainly refined into various types of fuels but also it affects strongly entire economies of many countries. Some of them, such as Canada and USA, are very much related to the oil market. However, petroleum’s relationship with non-ferrous metals is non-obvious. Here are some examples of relations.

[See more...]


Natural gas follows AgJunction Inc.

Natural gas is a resource that is employed in many fields. It is also adopted in many different areas. Not only is it used as an energy resource but also as a resource in the chemical industry and in obtaining hydrogen or ammonia. The last one mentioned is applied in the production of artificial fertilizers. This diversity delivers a wide range of variables that are analysed by ExMetrx. Here are our examples…

[See more...]


Compelling Relations – 2 – PKN ORLEN

We introduce a few variables that are related to the price of PKN ORLEN shares – the Polish petroleum leader. They represent the chemical and the extractive industry. Moreover, they reflect the nature of some essential elements of PKN Orlen’s infrastructure. The behaviour of variables often exceeds the significant fluctuation of share prices of Orlen.

[See more...]


Promising Models – 1 – KGHM

ExMetrix presents the series of Promising Models that will show the results of analysis by means of our platform. The series cover the search for variables that advance the process of studied phenomenon and building of forecasting model. We start with the model for the Polish company KGHM – a world leader in the extraction and processing of valuable metals – of 6-month time horizon. We have received the model of very good compatibility of…

[See more...]


Compelling Relations – 1 – KGHM

We search for variables that describe phenomena we are interested in by means of our ExMetrix platform. We especially focus on those with the timing advance. The models that are performed by ExMetrix platform “love” variables of this kind. We’ve decided to present such relations among data because, besides of relations that are quite obvious, we find variables that are non-obvious. Some we can explain by deduction. Some do not cooperate. Anyway, see the example…

[See more...]


Before and after the Swiss franc or the black day story

Before and after the Swiss franc or the black day story 15th of January 2015 was the day when the Swiss franc strengthened. That day was already called the black Thursday. It was one of the black days in the history of the world markets. The rapid change in the exchange rates was caused by Swiss National Bank that announced the abandonment of defending the minimum exchange rate. This resulted in a panic over the…

[See more...]